CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2024-03-23T01:48:00-CME-001)

2-CME simulation, with CMEs arriving at L1 as a combined front:

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Psyche, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-03-23T16:51:43Z
## Message ID: 20240323-AL-012
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-03-23T01:25Z.

Estimated speed: ~1613 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 2/22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-03-23T01:25:00-CME-001

2: O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-03-23T01:48Z.

Estimated speed: ~1572 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 5/5 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-03-23T01:48:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and Psyche (minor impact).  The leading edge of the CMEs will reach Solar Orbiter at 2024-03-23T14:01Z, STEREO A at 2024-03-24T15:36Z, and Psyche at 2024-03-27T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 
  
The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-03-24T17:55Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 6-8 (moderate to severe).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-03-23T01:25:00-CME-001, 2024-03-23T01:48:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240323_031900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240323_031900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240323_031900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240323_031900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240323_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240323_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240323_031900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

These CME events (2024-03-23T01:25:00-CME-001 and 2024-03-23T01:48:00-CME-001) are associated with X1.1 flare with ID 2024-03-23T00:58:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13614 (N25E07) which peaked at 2024-03-23T01:33Z and simultaneous flare from Active Region 13615 (S14E15) (see notifications 20240323-AL-001 and 20240323-AL-002), as well as with SEP at SOHO with ID 2024-03-23T06:49:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20240323-AL-006), SEP at GOES with ID 2024-03-23T08:15:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20240323-AL-003, 20240323-AL-005), and SEP at STEREO A with ID 2024-03-23T09:55:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20240323-AL-004 and 20240323-AL-006).

These CME events are still under analysis and updates will be provided when available.


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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